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RE: Can bailout fix US economy? - 9/25/2008 8:15:39 PM
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tinydancer2
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quote:
ORIGINAL: GroupW
OK, I'm back. Here's what we know right now. Keep in mind that a lot of the Wall Street firms will announce their quarterly results in the next few weeks so these numbers are going to grow a bit.
Globally, the mortgage crises has resulted in banks and other financial companies incurring about $521 billion in losses. Of that $521 billion, $381 billion are actual credit losses from bad loans. The remaining amount of $140 billion are mark-to-market paper losses which may or may not eventually show up as real hard dollar losses.
Of the total $521 billion, $379 billion in fresh capital has been raised to replenish banks' balance sheets, leaving a deficit of about $142 billion. That $142 billion represents somewhere between $1.4 trillion and $2.4 trillion in fresh lending that banks can not afford to do. This is why we have a liquidity crisis currently. That's a lot of loans that people can no longer get.
I respect the McKinsey consulting group tremendously, but the $5 trillion estimate seems a bit exaggerated. Even if we're only halfway through this crisis, you would expect losses to be somewhere in the $1.04 trillion range. Banks have already replaced $379 billion of that capital, leaving a gap of about $661 billion. In that light, the government's $700 billion doesn't seem so measley.
BT
FYI - on the Naked Capitalism site. It's horrible. I picked up 2 critical errors they make within the first 2 minutes of reading. I would disregard it.
I see..thanks again.
I am pondering with the idea to maybe open account at new Goldman Sachs bank..and have 1 account in regular bank and another at one of those 2 new banks. How does the new banks are going to work and is different from regular banks?
As my money, my mission money, is invested in commercial property that I have to sell, have been waiting for this to happen for a while...and than to invest at least 1/2 it. 
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RE: Can bailout fix US economy? - 9/25/2008 9:15:54 PM
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deliveredarling
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Anybody know if the Paulson Plan is different from the Whitehouse plan?
They seem to be having trouble telling the people what they are discussing and getting hung up on.
Their secrecy of details is disturbing.
The political spin is sickening. Republican dollars and Democratic dollars all spend the same. It's the taxpayers problem that needs to be resolved. When will America begin to put Americans first?
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RE: Can bailout fix US economy? - 9/25/2008 10:21:26 PM
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tracydolls
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quote:
The people who founded the US (Puritans) were running from persecution by the Church of England (Anglicans). The Church of England (Anglicans) split off from the Holy Roman (Catholic) Church, leading to several centuries of one side killing the other depending on which side the monarch was on at the time (and that changed almost every time someone new took the throne). Furthermore, immigrants to the US were not necessarily English anyway (many Germans, French, and Scots/Irish immigrated early on as well).
the Puritans did not found the US.
The Royal Virginia Company did first.
The Puritans got here in 1620, along with the first African Slaves, the Royal Virginia Company came here 1607.
""'From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Virginia Company of London SealThe London Company (also called the Charter of the Virginia Company of London) was an English joint stock company established by royal charter by James I of England on April 10, 1606 with the purpose of establishing colonial settlements in North America. It was not founded as a joint stock company, but became one under the 1609 charter. It was one of two such companies, along with the Plymouth Company, that was granted an identical charter as part of the Virginia Company. The London Company was responsible for establishing the Jamestown Settlement, the first permanent English settlement in the present United States in 1607, and in the process of sending additional supplies, inadvertently settled The Somers Isles (present day Bermuda), the oldest-remaining English colony, in 1609."""'
Your right  let's stick to the bailout.
Looks like some decent Republicans don't even want this mess.
Alot of americans have already had to choose between food and gas.
They are not sweating, never had any money to invest or buy a house.
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RE: Can bailout fix US economy? - 9/25/2008 11:00:28 PM
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wing2000
Posts: 1013
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...meanwhile, Washington Mutual went under today....the largest bank to fail...ever.
quote:
Anybody know if the Paulson Plan is different from the Whitehouse plan?
I don't think there was any difference there....
...any bets on how long the House Republicans will dig in their heels?
VP Cheney tried.
Pres. Bush tried.
John McCain tried.
...no deal.
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RE: Can bailout fix US economy? - 9/25/2008 11:32:32 PM
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Zhi
Posts: 1501
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I'm not sure what you mean, tracy. The Jamestown settlers were a mixture of Anglicans AND Puritans. The Puritan influence increased quickly, especially after Alexander Whitaker arrived in 1611 (who, among other things converted Pocahontas). The major difference was that Jamestown was established as a commercial venture, not a religious sanctuary, and the "version" of Puritanism in Jamestown was not separatist (they were happy to work alongside the Anglicans).
quote:
Looks like some decent Republicans don't even want this mess.
Alot of americans have already had to choose between food and gas.
They are not sweating, never had any money to invest or buy a house.
When the economy suffers, the dollar devalues.
When the dollar devalues, goods we get from other countries are more expensive.
This includes food, gas, clothing, the stuff everyone needs.
In case you haven't noticed, your dollar is buying less these days, whether it's gas or groceries.
The people who are barely making it, are the first to suffer.
The government is trying to stop the fall. Not for the super rich, they'll be fine, but for those who have the potential to slip into poverty due to a failing economy. The question is whether or not it will work.
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The optimist says the glass is half full. The pessimist says the glass is half empty. The engineer says the glass is twice as large as it needs to be.
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RE: Can bailout fix US economy? - 9/26/2008 1:50:46 AM
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GroupW
Posts: 2863
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quote:
ORIGINAL: AdrianaS
I see..thanks again.
I am pondering with the idea to maybe open account at new Goldman Sachs bank..and have 1 account in regular bank and another at one of those 2 new banks. How does the new banks are going to work and is different from regular banks?
As my money, my mission money, is invested in commercial property that I have to sell, have been waiting for this to happen for a while...and than to invest at least 1/2 it.
The new banks should operate exactly like regular commercial bank holding companies. They're not changing the regulations that govern the "new" banks. It's just a difference in regulatory oversight and capitalization requiremments. Generally they will function about the same.
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“For every problem, there is a solution that is simple, elegant and wrong.” -H.L. Mencken
"Most people would rather die than think; in fact, they do so." -Bertrand Russell
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RE: Can bailout fix US economy? - 9/26/2008 3:54:53 AM
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drnick
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I think it's very interesting that G W Bush has turned into a Socialist, and is Nationalising part of the banking system.
What next, health care for all?
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RE: Can bailout fix US economy? - 9/26/2008 10:31:34 AM
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GroupW
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One can hope.
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“For every problem, there is a solution that is simple, elegant and wrong.” -H.L. Mencken
"Most people would rather die than think; in fact, they do so." -Bertrand Russell
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RE: Can bailout fix US economy? - 9/26/2008 12:12:09 PM
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GregandJenny
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So does anyone thing that there should be a bailout? there are many Americans saying no. So what does a congressman do to accurately represent the majority of their constituency.
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RE: Can bailout fix US economy? - 9/26/2008 12:15:08 PM
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Zhi
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Well, for starters, a congressman can throw a fit about the stupid earmarks.
I was cautiously in favor before, now I'm thoroughly disgusted.
_____________________________
The optimist says the glass is half full. The pessimist says the glass is half empty. The engineer says the glass is twice as large as it needs to be.
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RE: Can bailout fix US economy? - 9/26/2008 12:17:04 PM
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GregandJenny
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Zhi I am getting the same way.
G
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RE: Can bailout fix US economy? - 9/26/2008 12:25:32 PM
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GroupW
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quote:
ORIGINAL: GregandJenny
So does anyone thing that there should be a bailout? there are many Americans saying no. So what does a congressman do to accurately represent the majority of their constituency.
Yes I do, but so far I haven't seen an acceptable form of it. I think it was Buffet that was responsible for the quote, but the gist of it is that we're all sitting in the same economic bathtub. You can't send all the cold water over to the folks that created the mess and relax over on the warm side. It rains on the guilty and innocent alike.
The financial system is in a crisis. It's one of its own making to be sure. Part of it though is just driven by irrational fear. Part of it is a real fundamental crisis.
It doesn't make sense to let the financial system grind to a halt simply due to a crisis-driven fear mentality. This puts a lot of people out of work unnecessarily, and as Tracydolls has rightly pointed out, the poor suffer disproportionately and very intensely.
It also doesn't make sense to have a sudden and disorderly deleveraging in the financial system that would likewise cause a lot of economic misery if the same goal can be reached in a more orderly fashion.
_____________________________
“For every problem, there is a solution that is simple, elegant and wrong.” -H.L. Mencken
"Most people would rather die than think; in fact, they do so." -Bertrand Russell
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RE: Can bailout fix US economy? - 9/26/2008 12:28:08 PM
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tinydancer2
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Thanks GW.
Now this bailout is becoming strange by the minute...and I'm talking about earmarks and the thread I just posted and found out about new stuff coming into place reggarding the bailout package and the homeownes help...there are lots of things FBI is investigating and the 4 Firms..plus there is the Acorn group..if what I find out is true:
"ACORN Housing Corporation (AHC) was instrumental in its passage of the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) which has plagued the mortgage markets since 1977. The U.S. Congress through the CRA compelled banks and lending institutions to make loans to “communities of color” disregarding sound economic and risk guidelines. CRA encouraged the relaxing of “outdated” risk-management protocols and underwriting obligations by lending institutions. In the name of ending discrimination, no longer were “communities of color” required to provide verification of income, employment, credit history, ability to pay homeowner bills, or down payment. In response, many banks and mortgage groups bundled trillions of dollars of “subprime” loans and sold them to investors here and abroad. It is these bundled Community Reinvestment Act mortgages, doomed to fail, that are today causing financial strain in U.S. and global financial markets." James H. Walsh former Federal Prosecuter
Based on what the Prosecuter above is saying about ACORD, this corporation must be investigated by the FBI also...Parties cannot name recipients of the homeowners fund based on their political agendas etc and Corporation they are inserting in the deal, may even be the ones involved at the root of the crises we are in..
Ewwww...there are so many layers in this bailout going on...it is not pretty and very complex, I think.
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RE: Can bailout fix US economy? - 9/26/2008 12:35:04 PM
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mapachito13
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Zhi
To equate those should give anyone who has the slightest knowledge of history a migraine.
Well, for starters, a congressman can throw a fit about the stupid earmarks.
I was cautiously in favor before, now I'm thoroughly disgusted.
I mixed some quotes from two of your posts Zhi but your quote about the historian's migraine mentioned repeating!
I think I see the reason why one of the sections of the bill raised our debt ceiling by $4 trillion dollars. They needed that to accomodate all the pork! Looks like every Senator or Congressperson wants their side of bacon!
I think our national symbol has just changed to the pig in Washington! 
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"I would argue that the most serious threat to the United States is not someone hiding in a cave in Pakistan or Afghanistan, but our own fiscal irresponsibility."-David Walker, fmr comptroller general of the US
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RE: Can bailout fix US economy? - 9/26/2008 12:37:56 PM
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GroupW
Posts: 2863
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quote:
ORIGINAL: AdrianaS
Thanks GW.
Now this bailout is becoming strange by the minute...and I'm talking about earmarks and the thread I just posted and found out about new stuff coming into place reggarding the bailout package and the homeownes help...there are lots of things FBI is investigating and the 4 Firms..plus there is the Acorn group..if what I find out is true:
"ACORN Housing Corporation (AHC) was instrumental in its passage of the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) which has plagued the mortgage markets since 1977. The U.S. Congress through the CRA compelled banks and lending institutions to make loans to “communities of color” disregarding sound economic and risk guidelines. CRA encouraged the relaxing of “outdated” risk-management protocols and underwriting obligations by lending institutions. In the name of ending discrimination, no longer were “communities of color” required to provide verification of income, employment, credit history, ability to pay homeowner bills, or down payment. In response, many banks and mortgage groups bundled trillions of dollars of “subprime” loans and sold them to investors here and abroad. It is these bundled Community Reinvestment Act mortgages, doomed to fail, that are today causing financial strain in U.S. and global financial markets." James H. Walsh former Federal Prosecuter
Based on what the Prosecuter above is saying about ACORD, this corporation must be investigated by the FBI also...Parties cannot name recipients of the homeowners fund based on their political agendas etc and Corporation they are inserting in the deal, may even be the ones involved at the root of the crises we are in..
Ewwww...there are so many layers in this bailout going on...it is not pretty and very complex, I think.
There's a lot of misinformation going around the 'net on CRA. I responded to a friend of mine yesterday on that very topic. Let me go see if I can post that here.
_____________________________
“For every problem, there is a solution that is simple, elegant and wrong.” -H.L. Mencken
"Most people would rather die than think; in fact, they do so." -Bertrand Russell
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RE: Can bailout fix US economy? - 9/26/2008 12:40:25 PM
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GroupW
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Found it. Here's the email I sent to a friend of mine.
---------------
Blaming CRA for the current crisis is a bit simplistic. There are way too many causes to point a finger at any one. CRA disputably may played a part, but if so a very minor role.
First, the issue with CRA isn’t it’s establishment but rather its implementation by the banks it regulated. Here’s what I mean.
The basic goal of CRA is that you can’t take deposits in one community and invest them in another. That’s called “redlining” and it resulted in a severe capital shortage in many low income neighborhoods that were deemed to be undesirable risks. Interestingly, the only bank that supported CRA back in 1977 was ShoreBank. ShoreBank was an inner city bank on the south side of Chicago that actually did very well lending to small businesses in the inner city. ShoreBank was smart enough to know that CRA wasn’t necessarily bad legislation if you knew the basics of small business lending. In the neighborhoods ShoreBank was active, significant inner city redevelopment occurred with a corresponding rise in small business activity, employment, and income. ShoreBank saw CRA as a leveling of the playing field rather than government intrusion and supported the legislation knowing that the inner city was being unnecessarily starved for development capital.
Back in 1987, I went to work for a small bank in Indiana. That bank neatly dodged CRA by declaring it’s service area to be Porter County – an above average income county with minimal minority presence. That bank steadfastly refused to expand westward since that would have brought Gary, Indiana into its service area. By contrast, the old Gary National Bank (aka “Gainer Bank”) did quite well in that area and eventually became the largest local bank in that county by a factor of 5 by purchasing several local Porter County Banks.
Again, it’s not CRA that’s the problem but finding ways to implement CRA profitably. It can be done, and has been done.
As recently as this past week, BB&T (east coast regional bank) was cited by analysts as an excellent institution for its avoidance of subprime loans. In reality, BB&T has historically done a significant amount of subprime lending. BB&T’s strategy however was different. They held all their loans on their own books and didn’t sell them. They used prudent underwriting and made sure people could document their incomes and could afford the loans. As a result, BB&T has largely avoided the entire mess while simultaneously getting an excellent CRA score. Clearly CRA considerations are not damaging BB&T’s performance.
BB&T is not alone. Wells Fargo has historically been one of the better subprime originators, again using reasonable underwriting criteria. Wells was also one of the larger issuers of sub-prime asset-backed securities. Wells’ losses have been modest and contained. Furthermore, Wells’ securitizations have performed in line with their ratings (unlike most others which have been downgraded, in some cases all the way from AAA to CCC in a very short amount of time.) Like BB&T, Wells understood that you can’t, and indeed don’t have to, abandon prudent underwriting in pursuit of legislatively mandated social goals.
Second, one of the other goals of CRA was to exert some form of discipline when it came to getting value from the government guarantee on their deposits. Banks benefit from a very low cost of borrowing due to the FDIC guarantee on deposits. The general feeling was, and still is, that the government and society in fairness needs to gain a benefit from that privilege. In mandating that banks serve the lower income portions of society by creating low cost loan and savings products, CRA did not encourage bad underwriting. It was explicitly endorsing what we all know – that banks serve a dual purpose. They are first and foremost businesses intended to make profits and create jobs.
Secondarily, though, they are allocatiors of investment capital and able to fundamentally influence via that power who has an economic shot at prosperity and who does not. In this role, banks have an ethical consideration unlike any other business. We are the arbiters of economic justice like no other. Some regulation to enforce the judicious use of this power is both reasonable and advisable.
Third, as the Wikipedia article rightly points out, nearly half of all subprime originations were done by entities not regulated by CRA.
This mess would have happened with or without legislative mandates.
Fourth, since the inception of CRA, there has been a steady influx of capital into the inner cities. It’s entirely possible that CRA is a significant factor in the ongoing gentrification of a number of blighted urban neighborhoods. It has not been a perfect piece of legislation, but it has had some excellent results.
_____________________________
“For every problem, there is a solution that is simple, elegant and wrong.” -H.L. Mencken
"Most people would rather die than think; in fact, they do so." -Bertrand Russell
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RE: Can bailout fix US economy? - 9/26/2008 1:24:09 PM
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tinydancer2
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Thanks GW.
wow I am learning a lot and thanks for your help! That is awesome! I elect you as one of my advisors as the bible say in Proverbs "And in abundance of counselors there is victory/safety"
God bless you my brother!
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RE: Can bailout fix US economy? - 9/26/2008 2:18:00 PM
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GroupW
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From: Up in the hills of Colorado (very BIG hills...)
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quote:
ORIGINAL: AdrianaS
Thanks GW.
wow I am learning a lot and thanks for your help! That is awesome! I elect you as one of my advisors as the bible say in Proverbs "And in abundance of counselors there is victory/safety"
God bless you my brother!
God bless you for your curiousity. There's a saying, "curiosity killed the cat." My opinion is that the cat that wasn't curious got run over by the car he didn't feel curious enough about to see. Curiousity saves not just the cat - the rest of us as well.
_____________________________
“For every problem, there is a solution that is simple, elegant and wrong.” -H.L. Mencken
"Most people would rather die than think; in fact, they do so." -Bertrand Russell
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RE: Can bailout fix US economy? - 9/26/2008 3:46:39 PM
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GroupW
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Just had this cross my desk - here's one example of how the current banking crisis can affect totally unrelated and innocent parties, and why we shouldn't necessarily be satisfied with the standard every day paradigm of "sink or swim".
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CHICAGO, Sept 26 (Reuters) - The credit crunch is sucking liquidity out of global trade and the shipping business, leaving cargoes stranded on docks and threatening to bring down shipyards and ship owners alike, the top executive of Excel Maritime Carriers Ltd <EXM.N> said on Friday.
"The banks have ceased lending and a lack of liquidity affects trade," Stamatis Molaris told Reuters in a telephone interview. "The demand for goods is there; there is just not enough liquidity to move those goods around."
"If the credit crunch lasts beyond the short term, then shipyards -- especially the newer ones -- are going to fall like a house of cards," he added.
Molaris said that throughout the industry and in numerous markets, cargoes have been left on the dock because it is hard to find banks willing to fund the movement of the goods.
"It has happened to us and it is happening everywhere to everyone," he said...
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International trade depends on a very old form of lending called Bankers Acceptances. These are very short term loans designed to plug the gap in between a sellers loading of goods and the buyers receipt of the same. Even this historically very safe and prudent form of credit is being impacted and causing problems for people.
_____________________________
“For every problem, there is a solution that is simple, elegant and wrong.” -H.L. Mencken
"Most people would rather die than think; in fact, they do so." -Bertrand Russell
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RE: Can bailout fix US economy? - 9/26/2008 4:14:37 PM
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Leslie_JnJs_mom
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quote:
"The banks have ceased lending and a lack of liquidity affects trade," Stamatis Molaris told Reuters in a telephone interview. "The demand for goods is there; there is just not enough liquidity to move those goods around."
Does this mean even though we were approved for a home loan through Bank of America last month for a house that we decided at the last minute not to get that if I went in for a loan on a different house we would probally be turned down?
We have really thought about keeping our current home as a rental and buying a new home closer to my husbands job.
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RE: Can bailout fix US economy? - 9/26/2008 4:35:36 PM
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bzirk
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Leslie_JnJs_mom
quote:
"The banks have ceased lending and a lack of liquidity affects trade," Stamatis Molaris told Reuters in a telephone interview. "The demand for goods is there; there is just not enough liquidity to move those goods around."
Does this mean even though we were approved for a home loan through Bank of America last month for a house that we decided at the last minute not to get that if I went in for a loan on a different house we would probally be turned down?
We have really thought about keeping our current home as a rental and buying a new home closer to my husbands job.
It depends on what happens this weekend, but I'd say that you probably don't have a sure thing. Were you pre-approved for a loan? Or did you actually get a loan for which you haven't taken the principal (loan amount) yet? There can be a difference.
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may the God of hope fill you with all joy and peace in believing, so you will abound in hope by the power of the Holy Spirit. Romans 15:13
Great quote: I just ain't God and don't know it all. -- SonInMe1
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RE: Can bailout fix US economy? - 9/26/2008 4:44:37 PM
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GroupW
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Not a sure thing, but if you went back to BofA, you stand a pretty good shot currently. BofA is one of the banks still in decent shape. Your rate, however, is likely a tad higher.
_____________________________
“For every problem, there is a solution that is simple, elegant and wrong.” -H.L. Mencken
"Most people would rather die than think; in fact, they do so." -Bertrand Russell
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RE: Can bailout fix US economy? - 9/26/2008 4:48:21 PM
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GroupW
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FYI - out for the weekend. I'll be back on Monday & we can chat about whatever craziness happens over the weekend. I'm sure there will be something.
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“For every problem, there is a solution that is simple, elegant and wrong.” -H.L. Mencken
"Most people would rather die than think; in fact, they do so." -Bertrand Russell
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We planned on keeping our present home for an income property and buy a house closer to my husbands work but it looks like that will not happen. Nothing is selling here except dirt cheap run down shells theat investors buy for rentals. So I am now thinking I am stuck here.